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Brilliant
http://www.cockeyed.com/citizen/poker/lottery_simulator100.php
I played 5 times, "50 years". Only once did I match four balls. I spent a total of $5200 and brought in about $584 bucks. Yikes.
Two Important Cartoons
http://darryl-cunningham.blogspot.com/2010/06/homeopathy.html
http://darryl-cunningham.blogspot.com/2010/05/facts-in-case-of-dr-andrew-wakefield.html
These are good reading & help to explain some of the background in the different issues.
Probably
This is why I fared so poorly in Probability class in college.
Let's say I flip two coins. I call you up on the phone and say, "Hey, I just flipped two coins and one of them is heads." Guess what the odds are that the other coin is heads.
Did you say 50%? Nope. Turns out the odds are 1 in 3. Here's the breakdown: if I flip 2 coins, there are four equal possibilities:
- heads / heads
- heads / tails
- tails / heads
- tails / tails
Now,when I tell you one of the coins is heads, the last possibility no longer is possible. That leaves three possibilities, two of which have the other coin being tails. So, the odds of a heads is one in three.
Now, let's say I call you up again and tell you, "Hey, I just flipped two coins and the one in my right hand is heads." What are the odds the other is heads?
Did you say 1 in 3? Sorry. It's 50%. Looking at our chart again, if I say one particular coin is heads, that eliminates two of the possibilities (where that coin is tails), leaving only two possibilities, of which only one has the remaining coin being heads.
That means, if I asked you the first question, and you said, "Which one?" If I answer, regardless of the answer, the odds of you getting the right answer go from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2.
What exactly does this mean?
This means that probability is harder than it looks. So if you see people casually tossing around probabilities, percentages and other numbers, trying to make a point, know that the math may not actually be that easy and be sure to think twice about it.
(The Two Sons Problem)
A Narrative
Here's an excerpt of a list of songs I listened to over the past couple of days. It thought it was funny how the song titles read like a narrative.
- Devil with a Blue Dress On/Good Golly Miss Molly (Mitch Ryder & the Detroit Wheels)
- Get Ur Freak On (Missy Elliott)
- Got a Feelin' (The Mama's & the Papas)
- It's Showtime! (David Lee Roth)
- Kiss the Rain (Billie Myers)
- Let's Talk About Sex (Salt N Pepa)
- Maniac (Michael Sambello)
- O! Ella (Henri Faberge & the Adorables)
- One Week (Barenaked Ladies)
- Pretty Daughter (Bad Livers)
- Queen Bitch (David Bowie)
- Shadows of the Night (Pat Benatar)
- Solid Gold Easy Action (T. Rex)
- Talk to Me (Stevie Nicks)
- Teenage Witch (Eels)
- Tenth Avenue Freeze Out (Bruce Springsteen)
- The Case Against Cinnabons (Jim Gaffigan)
- Wasted on the Way (CSN)
- Weird (Jim Gaffigan)
- Wind It Up (Gwen Stefani)
FixCongressFirst.org
Pay attention. The problem isn't just the most recent SCOTUS ruling reaffirming corporations as individuals protected under the constitution. The problem is that we've been duped into believing that the framers actually believed that companies had the rights and privileges due to human beings.
Wrong.
They believed that humans were inherently endowed with rights. Corporations are the creations of humans, and can be granted rights and privileges by law, and should be. But they don't inherently have the same rights or deserve the same protections that humans do. Period.
FixCongressFirst.orgSign up, let your elected officials know. This isn't a Democrat or Republican thing. This isn't a progressive, liberal, reactionary or conservative thing. This is a Democracy thing. And regardless of your views on the way the government is going, you're opinion is going to matter less and less unless we all, as citizens, do something about it.
Overheard
I actually heard someone say, and I quote, "See, I think [Obama] is both a Muslim and a communist..."
Okay, you can say he believes in big government, and you can even say he has socialist tendencies. I'm not sure I believe that, but you could probably make a cogent argument. But a Communist? Do you even know what that means?
And he's not a Muslim. Even if he were a Muslim, he's obviously not an extremist Muslim or he would have already lit his underwear on fire, and we would have heard about it by now.
But, please explain to me, how someone can be both an extremist Jihad-loving Muslim and a godless Communist all at the same time?
I mean, come on. If I roll my eyes any harder, I'll sprain something.
Jive Turkey
In celebration of Thanksgiving, I posted another preemptive song to Topeka. Head over and grab it if you're interested. Also, let me know if there is anything you are interested in learning more about.
Sharity
Hey, if you're interested in tunes, why not visit Topeka? It's my preemptive attack on a New Year's resolution to (a) write more and (b) share music I love. Hopefully there'll be a new tune every weekday of 2010, but right now there's one up for testing. Go visit, set your RSS readers and spread the word!
Vampires
Why is it that vampires can't go out in the sun, but they aren't bothered by the moon. I mean, the moon's light is just sunlight right? Just not quite as much...
Be Happy
This clip reminds me why I love Bobby McFerrin.
Sad
Actually, this is one of the saddest things I've seen. It's one thing to think, well, maybe I'm not as good as I could be, but I've got time to work on it. It's another for the whole rest of the world to let you know they think you suck. Imagine being mocked by stadiums full of people. I'm not sure I could deal with it, if I were being mocked for something I actually was trying at & cared about.
When do you just stop counting?
"Inflation officially hit 231 million percent in July, but John Robertson, an independent economist in Zimbabwe, estimates that it has now surged to an astounding eight quintillion percent — that is an eight followed by 18 zeros."
- New York Times
So, when do we, as Saviors of the Universe, step in and remove this ruthless octogenarian from power? Is raw flowing sewage in the streets not enough? Are we waiting for him to "gas his own people"? That seems to be the go-to clincher when we discuss Saddam Hussein. It'd be easy too, as we'd finally be fighting a known force (his army & police) with a true leader, rather than a well-camouflaged group of random zealots. And unlike Iraq, I'm actually pretty sure those folks would greet us as liberators.
Anyway, if anyone deserves a swift kick in the dictatorial arse, it's this fucker. If only they had some precious natural resource worth fighting for...
Peter
Everything's Amazing; Nobody's Happy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbIGbZ6gq_Y
The Key
Okay, this guy is a bit of a ... liberal? Not really. Tin foil hat guy? Kinda. I don't think he's anti-capitalist, and he's certainly not socialist/marxist. He reaslly is more a back-hills-of-Montana tract scribbler. Except I don't think he wants to blow anybody up.
However, deep within, after you dig through some of the rhetoric, are, I believe, some core truths about the way we in America deal with debt, fool ourselves about our "prosperity" and such.
Today he has a paragraph that captures my feelings on Obama: cautious optimism: Elections are important, even profound theater, but we should remember that government is more an army than a leader. Just as Bush's presidency was defined by his appointments of neocons, incompetents, sychophants and Wall Street insiders to positions of power, so too will Obama's presidency be defined by his choices for the numerous positions of day-to-day responsibility in the Pentagon, Treasury Department, FEMA, and so on. My greatest hope for the Obama presidency is the appointment of sober competence in key positions of power in the Federal government.
That's basically it. I believe he will choose people right for the post, not based on his buddies' suggestions but by thinking hard & choosing the most appropriate, effective person. I believe he's that kind of person, so my hope is high. But cautious.
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